As the saying goes, 'When the US sneezes, the World catches a cold'.
The incredible strength of the US stock markets has undoubtedly prop up the Rest of the World's stock markets since this bull market kicked off from the dark days of 2009 lows 12 years ago.
And since this bull market may look to finally end in the Fibonacci series coinciding at the 13th year, we are probably just one or two years from the finale or as Mr Jeremy Grantham of GMO fame calls it 'Waiting for The Last Dance'.
Thom Ng is one of the leading Principal Trading Representatives in PhillipCapital Inc (Singapore) and he has been tracking the S&P500 Index like a hawk since 2016. His reading on the pulse of the Index has been nothing less than exceptional.
Some examples of his astute forecasts of S&P500 Index (SPX) major turning points are shown below:
1) 25 Dec 2018 writeup titled 'These violent delights have violent ends'
Excerpt from writeup:
'..However, I noted that many of the sentiment indices I tracked (AAII Sentiment Index, NAAIM Exposure Index & CBOE Put/Call Ratio) are nearing parameters that can summon a more concrete bounce in the market..'
One day after this post, SPX hit an intra-day low of 2,347 on 26 Dec 2018 after which it proceeds to see a 26% multi-month rally that ended in April 2019.
Reference - https://www.facebook.com/whatsyourTA/posts/558981301233054
2) 2 Jan 2019 writeup titled 'A New Hope!'
Excerpt from writeup:
'..To sum it up for a new start in 2019, regardless whether we will see one more low in SPX OR NOT, the next pullback/weakness in SPX is likely the place where you can go in to BUY. Scale it in appropriately..'
After informing his Clients to 'scale it in appropriately' on 2 Jan 2019, the SPX in Jan 2019 kicked off one of the strongest rallies in recent history, charging from a low of 2347 in Dec 2018 to to a high of 3394 on 19 Feb 2020. That's a return of 45% in 14 months!
Reference - https://www.facebook.com/whatsyourTA/posts/565734900557694
3) 13 May 2019 writeup titled 'There is nothing new under the sun!'
Excerpt from writeup:
'..If the Symmetrical Triangle presents a picture of “doubt awaiting clarification, and the Rectangle a picture of controlled “conflict”, the Broadening Formation may be said to suggest a market lacking intelligent sponsorship and out of control — a situation, usually, in which the “public” is excitedly committed and which is being whipped around by wild rumors. Nevertheless, the very fact that chart pictures of this type make their appearance, as a rule, only at the end or in the final phases of a long Bull Market lends credence to our characterization of them.'
Now take a look at the 3.5-year chart (image 3) of our beloved S&P500 Index (SPX). From a visual perspective, the current SPX Chart fits the Broadening Formation to a 'T'..'
For the uninitiated, the SPX proceeds to execute the bearish 'Broadening Formation' in March 2020 with a jaw-dropping 35%+ drawdown in a space of 2 weeks as the Covid pandemic rages on globally.
Reference - https://www.facebook.com/whatsyourTA/posts/634005333730650
4) 1 Jun 2020 writeup titled 'Make no mistake, Mr Market has indeed shown his hand!'
Excerpt from writeup:
'..Mr Market has indeed shown his hand. SPX has broken out of its 61.8% resistance zone at 2934+/- authoritatively..
..With this breakout, what it means is that the probability of us seeing (revisiting) the March low or lower low has been greatly reduced. In other words, if you are an investor in the US market, you should be looking to buy on pullbacks in the next few months running into Q3..'
In case you are not following through, while every investor out there was convinced to see SPX fall to new lows in Q3 2020, Thom argued that SPX has indeed 'showed its hand' by breaking past authoritatively its 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level and thus the probability of revisiting the March low or a lower low has been greatly reduced.
SPX then rallied another 1,330 points from 1 Jun 2020 to 14 Jul 2021, for an eye-popping return of 43% over 13 months!
Reference - https://www.thom-ng.com/post/make-no-mistake-mr-market-has-indeed-showed-his-hand
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Now as we approach the final laps of this 11-year bull market, do not miss out Thom's monthly writeups as he continues to use his Applied Technical Analysis to forcecast all the important twists and turns of the S&P500 Index! Subscribe* to his PATREON channel today!
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